Is the SEC still the best?

   With so much talk about who can dethrone the SEC, people need to realize something. The SEC is not the best conference from top to bottom this season. They are VERY top heavy with maybe 2 very good teams, 1 possibly great team, and 1 Juggernaut. The Big-12 and Pac-12 are better as a whole. They have many more competitive teams just not as many stacked teams at the top. I still believe the SEC wins another BCS title but, it is the beginning of the end for that run. ...It doesn't mean they are going away for long though.

That is a status update I wrote on facebook a few nights back. After writing it I decided to find out what the numbers said and if my statement was true. Below are my findings. 


Look at the Big-12. Currently they have 6 teams in the AP Top 25 (#7 Kansas St. #9 West Virginia, #12 Texas, #15 TCU #16 Oklahoma and #25 Baylor) 

The Pac-12 has 4 teams in the AP Top 25 (#2 Oregon, #8 Stanford, #13 USC, and #18 Oregon St.) Note that Arizona and UCLA just dropped out of the Top 25.

The SEC currently has 6 teams in the AP Top 25. (#1 Alabama, #3 LSU, #5 Georgia, #6 South Carolina, #11 Florida, and #21 Mississippi St.) 

Obviously the SEC dominates the Top 10. Which supports my top heavy theory. But, take a look at the rest of the unranked teams in all three of the leagues. 

The SEC has 3-1 Tennessee, 2-1 Texas A&M, 1-3 Arkansas, 1-3 Auburn, 2-2 Missouri, 3-1 Ole Miss, 1-3 Vanderbilt, and 1-3 Kentucky. (The combined record for SEC unranked teams is: 14-17) 

The Big-12 has 2-1 Oklahoma St. 3-0 Texas Tech, 3-0 Iowa St. and 1-3 Kansas. (The combined record for the Big 12 unranked teams is: 9-4) Please note that the Big 12 has 4 fewer teams than the SEC, and 2 fewer than the Pac-12. 

The Pac-12 has 1-3 Colorado, 3-1 Arizona, 1-3 Cal, 3-1 Arizona St. 2-2 Utah, 2-1 Washington, 3-1 UCLA, and 2-2 Washington St. (The combined record for the Pac-12 unranked teams is: 17-14) Please not the the Pac-12 has 2 fewer teams than the SEC but 2 more unranked teams than the SEC. 

Then let us compare the non-conference opponents for each league so far: 

SEC- North Carolina St, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Clemson, Jacksonville St, North Texas, SE Louisiana, Cent Arkansas, Jackson St, Michigan, Louisville, East Carolina, Western Kentucky (twice), Georgia St, LA-Monroe(twice), Washington, UTEP, Kent St, Northwestern, Presbyterian, SMU, Arizona St, UAB, Troy, Florida Atl (twice), Idaho, Texas, Tulane, Rutgers, S Carolina St, S Alabama, and Akron. 

That is 8 teams from Automatic Qualifying BCS conferences and 27 non AQ teams. 

SEC Out of conference record so far: 29-6

Big-12- Marshall, Tulsa, Savannah St. SD St. NW St. Missouri St. Wyoming, UTEP, SMU, Miami, Iowa, Rice, Florida A&M, Texas St, Grambling, New Mexico, Arizona, LA-Lafayette, James Madison, North Texas, New Mexico, Sam Houston St, W. Illinois, Ole Miss, LA-Monroe, Maryland, Virginia, N. Illinois, 

That is 6 teams from Automatic Qualifying BCS conferences and 22 non AQ teams. 

Big-12 Out of conference record so far: 25-3. (If the Big-12 had 14 teams like the SEC I am sure their numbers would be very similar) 


Pac-12- N. Colorado, Rice, BYU, N. Arizona, San Jose St, Nevada, Colorado St, Hawaii, Toledo, SDST, Arkansas St, Utah St, S. Utah, Sac St, E. Washington, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Fresno St, LSU, Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma St, Duke, UNLV, Ohio St, Tennessee Tech, Portland St, Missouri, Fresno St, BYU, S Carolina St, Houston, 

That is 11 teams from Automatic Qualifying BCS/Independent conferences and 21 non AQ teams. 

Pac-12 Out of conference record so far:  23-9 (The Pac-12 has 12 teams compared to the SEC's 14) 

So what does all this mean? 

I think it means that when you take a look at the numbers and the number of teams in each conference (SEC- 14, Big-12- 10, Pac-12- 12) and then you average those numbers out, you get three conferences that stack up pretty much evenly at this point. All three conferences have played each other head to head. The glaring absence so far is head to head match-ups between the heavy hitters in each conference. There just hasn't been a game like Oregon-LSU from 2011 to gauge anything. All three conferences have very similar out of conference records and opponents. All three at this point and time are very equal in my mind. The SEC is not head and shoulders above the Big-12 or Pac-12 in 2012. Not yet any way. As I write this, Stanford is having a hard time against Washington in the 3rd qtr. The Cardinal currently lead 6-3. Why does that matter? If this game stays close or if Washington should happen to win, we have out first possibly real "gauging" of the conference powers. You see, three weeks ago, LSU dominated Washington in every phase of the game. It was very ugly. Washington was humiliated 41-3. Stanford upset USC a week later. The same USC who is picked by many to win the BCS title. I know very well that each team is different and that anything can happen in any given game. Just take note that as of now that is the closest comparison we have if Washington is able to pull an upset of keep it close. I still believe though that Oregon is the class of the Pac-12. Not USC. 

The truth is, it is nearly impossible to say which conference is better in 2012. What is true is that the dominance of the SEC is not as apparent as it was during SEC 6 year BCS title domination. Obviously the SEC recruits better than anyone in the country with Texas and USC running a close second. In my opinion I think if you really want an answr you just have to look at coaching. The SEC still has a stalwart of big name coaches...at the top. But, the SEC has had its share of coaching turnover as well as brilliant assistant coaches being plucked away by other schools in other conferences. Factor in the Petrino scandal at Arkansas last winter as well. Meanwhile the Big-12 and Pac-12 have hired some really great young coaching minds to be head coaches and I think that will further bridge the gap between conferences as time goes on. I always like to say everything is cyclical. That is even true in college football. Though it may not seem like it right at this moment, there will come a day when the SEC plays second fiddle to another power football conference.   

Week 5 Picks: 

Last week I was 13-2. I am 49-10 for the season. I again correctly called the Upset of the week with Kansas St. beating Oklahoma in Norman. I am 2-1 in upset picks this season. 

Alabama 49 Ole Miss 6

Oregon 64 Washington St. 27

LSU 52 Towson 9

Florida St. 37 South Florida 13

Georgia 37 Tennessee 17

South Carolina 40 Kentucky 6

West Virginia 45 Baylor 31

Texas 27 Oklahoma St. 17

TCU 34 SMU 21

Michigan St. 20 Ohio St. 17

Texas A&M 35 Arkansas 14

Minnesota 21 Iowa 20 

Nebraska 27 Wisconsin 24

Arizona 33 Oregon St. 31

Upset of the Week: 

Boston College 29 Clemson 27



Happy Week 5!